In the midst of all the arctic air talk has been a wintry threat that has been on meteorologists’ radar (pun intended) for almost a week now.
With our area currently under a dome of truly polar air, the region is primed for wintry weather when a warm front approaches the area from the south on Saturday morning. It’s associated low pressure system will pass well off to our west and set up for a rollercoaster weekend of temperature and precipitation changes.
After a frigidly cold end to our work week, our surface will be well below freezing and supportive of frozen precipitation through Saturday morning. A low pressure system will approach the Great Lakes, and ahead of it, a surge of moisture and warmer air will invade Cinnaminson. Before it can really warm us up though, it will have to battle our incumbent cold air.
After midnight Friday night, we should be seeing our first snowflakes falling in town, and with an atmosphere well below freezing, we likely continue to see the white stuff through sunrise.
The image below shows Thursday afternoon’s NAM model run with its depiction of precipitation at 4am early Saturday morning with mixing and rain quickly approaching the Philadelphia Metro.
During this time, we’ll most likely see an accumulation of a coating to 2” on all surfaces. At times, the snow could fall at a moderate clip as the initial thump of snowfall comes down with the system.
Below is my snow map for the state showing the higher elevations of the state in the ‘jackpot’ zone while coastal areas likely see a quicker changeover to a mix/rain.
Around sunrise on Saturday morning, roughly 5-7am, we’ll start seeing a changeover to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain as warm air overruns our cold surface temperatures.
This means that precipitation falling aloft will melt in the above-freezing air above and then refreeze toward the surface, coming down as sleet and/or freezing rain (ice). Sleet is ice pellets (often mistaken as hail during the winter) while freezing rain is plain rain that freezes on contact as ice on surfaces below freezing.
At this time, it’s unsure how long we could see icing as it’ll be strictly based on subtle temperature changes in the air and surfaces like sidewalks, streets, cars, etc. Regardless, the incoming warm temperatures will have to erode a very cold surface. Though it’ll likely be raining by mid-morning on Saturday, I wouldn’t be surprised if surfaces continued to ice up until 10am to noon. Therefore, watch for the possibility of icy coatings on all surfaces.
However, by noon, we’re likely all rain as temperatures climb well into the 40’s by nightfall and then into the mid- to upper-50’s as a high on Sunday with the warm front lifting to our north. Scattered showers will affect the area on Saturday before a period of rain moves through Sunday with the storm’s cold front moving through which brings cold air back to start our next work week.
In the end, it’s very possible that you go to sleep Friday night and wake up Saturday morning without personally seeing any snow, but the chance at snowy and icy accumulations is very real.
A changeover to rain and relatively warm temperatures by the end of Saturday morning should help to take care of any of that snow/ice though. If you’re looking for our first major snowfall of the winter, you’ll have to keep on waiting.
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