A major snowstorm is expected to impact the state of New Jersey on Thursday. Take a look at the forecast from meteorologist Mike Beam.
It’s been a relatively boring winter snow-wise for Cinnaminson so far with 6.7” measured through February 7th at my weather station. That’s about to change as a winter storm has its sight set on the state for Thursday and is a storm that could double our snow total for the year.
Ahead of the system, warm air out of the south will drive in warm temperatures for our Wednesday, with highs upward of around 20° above average in the low-60’s. However, a cold front will pass through the area, and temperatures will plummet from sunset on Wednesday through the duration of the storm on Thursday.
As the storm approaches from the west and moves off to our south, rain will works its way into Cinnaminson shortly after midnight.Â
As the system moves just off our coast and strengthens, precipitation will increase in intensity and help to drag colder air down throughout the atmosphere. This would lead to rain changing over to snowfall around 4am during the pre-dawn hours.
Following the changeover, we’ll see our heaviest snowfall occur through mid-morning smack dab during the middle of the AM commute on Thursday. Main hazards are low visibility and snow-covered roads…we know the deal.Â
As of now, the setup will be favorable for strong lift in the atmosphere which is key to heavier precipitation and snow rates upward of 1-2” per hour. During this time frame, we’ll watch for surfaces to cover quickly despite the previous day’s warmth.
The main bulk of snowfall likely ends around mid-day.
Below is this Wednesday afternoon’s GFS model run representation of how precipitation could look around 7am on Thursday morning with the heaviest snowfall from Southeast Pennsylvania through Northeast New Jersey.
This will be a heavier and wetter snow that’ll be more prone to melting post-storm. With below-freezing temperatures for the most part Thursday through Saturday morning, we’ll need to be aware of any snow melt refreezing on paved surfaces, leading to black ice.Â
One uncertainty that we currently have is where exactly the rain/snow line initially sets up and how quickly we change over to all snow. A system nearer to the coast would lead to lower snow totals, and a storm further to the southeast would lead to a snowier solution.Â
Another uncertainty is where the heaviest banding of snow sets up, and right now, that looks to be just off to our north and west where the jackpot area lies for snowfall.
Below is my snow map for Thursday’s storm. At this time, I have Cinnaminson at 4-8” and leaning on the lower end of that range (4-6”) unless newer data suggests a snowier solution. Areas closer to the coast will have more rainfall while northern parts of the state see little or no rain and heavier snowfall. North Jersey will likely see the highest totals from this system.
I’ll update as necessary, if possible, since I’ll be away from my computer until late tomorrow night.
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